The Weather: Who Should We Believe?

Now that the thaw has arrived the recriminations are starting.  Following on from the Met Office's notorious "barbecue summer" quip came , what will surely become equally notorious, the forecast of a Winter of "above average temperatures" for a Winter that was actually the worst and coldest for 30 years.  These amazing predictions have led many to rightly question the viability of the Met Office's longer range forecasts.
But there are other problems as well.  The issue of Severe Weather Warnings has been well and truly overdone with many in our area (Dunblane) proving to be far too pessimistic.  This only serves to reduce people's confidence so that when the real warning comes it will be ignored.  And equally there has been an extraordinary disparity between Met Office and BBC forecasts, both in the nature of the weather expected and the temperatures.  In one case the Met Office and the BBC temperature forecast for Dunblane was different by 6 degrees!  Given that the BBC uses the raw data feed from the Met Office how can this be so?  And who are we supposed to believe?  And why does the BBC have "meteorologists"(rather than just televisual presenters) when the Met Office has them too?  And why do they give different forecasts?  We should be told.

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Thousands say goodbye to migratory birds

Thousands say goodbye to migratory birds: "Despite stormy weather across Europe over the past weekend, more than 63,000 people set out to bid farewell to birds."

If you have any doubts about how important bids are to so many people read this...

Climate Change: Are the Models Good Enough?

One of the key tools in foreseeing the effects of any changes in global temperature are the climate models that are used by scientists to predict how the climate will look a number of years ahead.  The central importance of such models is clear.  Indeed the whole of the argument about the devastation that global warming will bring is solely based on such models.  But are these models good enough?  Do they really predict the future?
The efficacy of climate modelling depends on two key things.  First are the data that are fed into the models accurate and reliable and secondly are the underpinning assumptions and algorithms sufficiently logical, robust and comprehensive to produce reliable conclusions.  The trouble is the world is such a complicated place with so many interactions that even our best models can only produce very simplistic conclusions.  Unfortunately we simply don't know enough about how the World ticks.
Today the Economist publishes an excellent article Errors of Omission that tackles these exact points.  Easy to read and understand (like all Economist articles - what a joy they are!), the article points out some of the difficulties we have in relying on such models that take no account of geopolitical and diplomatic trends, for example.  The conclusion is that the models must become even more comprehensive if they are to be of more use.  We know from our own experience how difficult it is to get a totally reliable forecast of what the weather is going to do.  Forecasting the global impact of a change in temperature is therefore a big ask!

It's a Dirty World

The ABC has just released satellite photos of the Great Sydney Dust Storm.
By all accounts this storm was a worthy rival to the Great Melbourne Dust Storm of February 1983.

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Who Hates Oz?

You could be forgiven for thinking that someone (God?) has it in for Australia at present.  What other country in the World can boast:

• Severe bushfires
• Dust storms
• Earthquakes
• Tornadoes
• Hail storms
• Heavy rains
• Flash Floods

And all on the same day!  The varied and extreme weather that Australia is currently experiencing could be as a result of global warming or it could be a coincidence.  All of these events have happened before - regularly in same cases but you don't often see them happening simultaneously.

Perhaps aliens are preparing to invade next.  Good news is that the Ozone hole is on the mend and may be shut by the end of the Century.  That might help to keep the aliens out.

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Back Again Despite Midges and Rain

Back again from the trip to the Highlands. It was wet, wet, wet (just like the pop group!).  Rained every day except one.  And the midges were diabolical.  Nevertheless the Highlands were magnificent and oh so moody in the wet.

 Did a walk up onto the flanks of Beinn Eighe near Kinlochewe in the rain but stayed relatively dry in our Goretex gear. Amazing fabric really does keep you dry.


On the dry day went to Plockton, site of the television show Hamish Macbeth; very picturesqe but no real tourist facilities open like coffee shops etc. despite being in the high season.  Seems the culture of service hasn't yet penetrated the Highlands to any great extent.  Odd since tourism is probably one of the major industries.
And went over the sea to Skye but instead of speeding on a bonny boat, drove over a concrete bridge:

And on to Portree:

You can see the rest of the pictures here

A Moan About Scotland

Thought I would start the day by having a moan about Scotland.  No not the SNP, Scottish intransigence, bagpipes or midges (more of them in a later post) but rather that perennial - The Scottish Weather !

Woke up this morning to rain and more rain and the prospect of even more rain in the next week.  This is the wettest Summer I can remember in Central Scotland.  No Global Warming here, we have Global Wetting.  It's dismal raining grey skies most of the time it seems.  Must be the only country where you get SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder) in Summer!